Jay Biggestaff USA Today

First Place is on the Line

Chiefs Look to Create a BIG Division Lead

Bob Fescoe
September 30, 2018 - 5:55 pm

The Chiefs have a golden opportunity on Monday night to really start to run away with the AFC West.  I know its early in the season and we aren't even into October games but Monday Night's Showdown is going to go a long way in deciding the AFC West.  If the Chiefs win, they will essentially have a 3 game lead in the division after just 4 total games being played.  The Chiefs would move to 4-0 with the win and Denver would fall to 2-2.  That is a 2 game lead on paper, plus the head to head win.  If the Broncos somehow shut down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense both teams would be tied at 3-1 and Denver would hold the tie breaker over KC.  So lets see how this game will play out on Monday Night in the Mile High City!


1.  The Chiefs defense needs to dominate against the Broncos run- KC is giving up over 5 yards per carry on the ground. Denver running back Phillip Lindsay is averaging 6 yards per carry. The good news is that a lot of teams are playing from behind so there hasn't been a lot of running agains the Chiefs defense.  I feel like the Broncos will try to run it down their throats.  It accomplishes 2 things:  Keeps Mahomes on the bench and it keeps the ball moving down the field.  KC has to find a way to be a run smothering defense on 1st down and force the Broncos into passing situations.

2.  Big plays on 1st down- In the NFL we put so much emphasis on how teams fair on 3rd downs. Its easy to be good on 3rd downs if its a manageable situation.  I want to see the Chiefs limit the Broncos on first downs and I want to see them get big chunks of yardage on 1st downs when they have the ball.

3.  Get a lead- The Chiefs usually defer and play defense first.  They have done a great job in getting the opponent off the field in the first 3 games on the first possession.  That needs to continue.  They have done an awesome job driving down the field on the first drive and scoring a touchdown.  That needs to continue.  There is nothing better than seeing the opponent give up with 6 minutes to go in the first quarter because they know they can't play catch up with the Chiefs.  A simple 7-0 lead will go a long way on Monday night.

4.  Don't allow the Denver defense to confuse Mahomes- After the week 2 win over Pittsburgh, one of the Steelers said they tried to trick Mahomes and he didn't fall for it.  On Thursday, Chris Harris of the Broncos said they will "try to confuse" Mahomes on Monday night.  One thing we have seen so far this year is that Mahomes is pretty darn smart.  He hasn't fallen for tricks so far this year and I expect that to continue on Monday.  I appreciate Harris having confidence but he hasn't seen this version of Mahomes.  It could get ugly on Monday.

5.  Don't turn it over- The most important number during the first 3 weeks of the season has been ZERO. Mahomes has ZERO INT's on the year.  Amazing.  He needs to continue that streak on Monday.  If you don't turn it over you have such a big big advantage when it comes to winning games.  If the Chiefs are perfect and don't give it away, they will win the game.

Prediction:  Chiefs 35 Broncos 27


We discussed this more on today's show: 

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